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 Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup?

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Air NZ Cup Winner?
Canterbury
Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Vote_lcap40%Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Vote_rcap
 40% [ 2 ]
Hawkes Bay
Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Vote_lcap40%Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Vote_rcap
 40% [ 2 ]
Wellington
Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Vote_lcap20%Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Vote_rcap
 20% [ 1 ]
Southland
Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Vote_lcap0%Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Vote_rcap
 0% [ 0 ]
Waikato
Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Vote_lcap0%Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Vote_rcap
 0% [ 0 ]
Auckland
Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Vote_lcap0%Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Vote_rcap
 0% [ 0 ]
Other?
Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Vote_lcap0%Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Vote_rcap
 0% [ 0 ]
Total Votes : 5
 

AuthorMessage
Hendo Maroon
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Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Empty
PostSubject: Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup?   Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Icon_minitimeTue Oct 13, 2009 5:42 am

So realisticly there is only 6 teams capable of taking out the Air New Zealand Cup in 2009. With only two round to play the table looks like this:

1. Canterbury 42
2. Hawkes Bay 35
3. Wellington 34
4. Southland 33
5. Waikato 31
6. Auckland 30

As the draw works out even if Bay of Plenty, Taranaki and Tasman win both their remaining matches they wont make the top 4. Unless there is some major upsets like Northland beating Waikato, Counties beating Auckland and Harbour beating Wellington (Waikato, Auckland and Wellington all have home advantage in these games)

At the TAB Canterbury are strong favourites, here is the odds....

Canterbury - $2
Wellington - $4
Hawkes Bay - $6
Waikato - $7
Auckland - $10
Southland - $15
Bay of Plenty - $20
Tasman - $100
Taranaki - $100

So who is going to win it? Remember the All Blacks would have left for their end of year tour by the time the finals roll around.

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Ruggerhead
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PostSubject: Re: Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup?   Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Icon_minitimeTue Oct 13, 2009 5:47 am

Canterbury - because they will have a home final.
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CM_STEELERS
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PostSubject: Re: Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup?   Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Icon_minitimeTue Oct 13, 2009 8:10 am

canterbury should take it out, wont be suprised to see waikato win it
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samthaman15
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PostSubject: Re: Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup?   Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Icon_minitimeTue Oct 13, 2009 8:20 am

wellington will.
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CM_STEELERS
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CM_STEELERS

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PostSubject: Re: Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup?   Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Icon_minitimeTue Oct 13, 2009 8:22 am

without weepu/gear/smith/nonu/jane and maybe ellison? i highly doubt it. unless d smith and other step up i doubt they have the points in them to win it
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chrishbhs
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PostSubject: Re: Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup?   Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Icon_minitimeTue Oct 13, 2009 8:44 am

Canterbury and Wellington will lose heaps of players for the playoffs, opening the door for the Magpies who probably won't lose any. Would still need a big effort to beat Canterbury though with the depth they have
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Rozza
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PostSubject: Re: Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup?   Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Icon_minitimeTue Oct 13, 2009 8:48 am

Hawkes Bay vs Canterbury Final

Hawkes Bay will win
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noriyuki
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PostSubject: Re: Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup?   Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Icon_minitimeTue Oct 13, 2009 9:41 am

Was thinking about dropping some coin on Waikato back when they were 15th or so but thought canterbury would have all blacks for finals, now i think hawke's bay could be looking to give it a good tilt but player fatigue could affect them the most other than southland
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Pantherus
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PostSubject: Re: Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup?   Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Icon_minitimeTue Oct 13, 2009 10:01 am

Lot of things to consider - both Canterbury and Wellington will be losing a lot of players by then and it's uncertain whether the leftovers will have what it takes to finish the job - similarly Hawkes Bay and Southland'll be knackered by then...

But after deliberation - heart says Wellington, head says Canterbury.
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Hendo Maroon
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PostSubject: Re: Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup?   Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Icon_minitimeTue Oct 13, 2009 11:56 pm

Southland, unless they beat Canterbury for the shield, wont even be in the finals unfortunatley. As I explained in my original post Auckland face Counties and Waikato face Northland, both are at home, both should be bonus point wins to the home sides. Auckland and Waikato will battle for the final top 4 spot in the last round when they take on each other in Hamilton, Waikato should get up here unless they are heavily damaged by loss of All Blacks.

I am going to put all bias aside in my prediction and will do this prediction where the favourite always wins (it probably wont happen like this but will give a fair idea of what has to happen for each team to make the finals)...scores are competition points not actual scores.

So round 12

Canterbury V Hawkes Bay 4-1
Southland V Taranaki 5-0
Waikato V Northland 5-0
Auckland V Counties 5-0
Wellington V North Harbour 5-0

Giving us this table at the end of the round:
Canterbury 46
Wellington 39
Southland 38
Hawkes Bay 36
Waikato 36
Auckland 35

Round 13
Canterbury V Soutland 4-1
Hawkes Bay V Northland 5-0
Wellington V Tasman 4-1
Waikato V Auckland 4-0

Giving us this table at the end of the rounds
Canterbury 50
Wellington 43
Hawkes Bay 41
Waikato 40

So that will be the top 4, if the favourites win.

Canterbury host Waikato
Wellington host Hawkes Bay (I will definitely be at this game if this is the case)

Canerbury V Wellington final.

Obviously in the real world things don't always go the way they are supposed to, and I really hope it doesn't Very Happy .

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PostSubject: Re: Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup?   Who's going to win the Air New Zealand Cup? Icon_minitime

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